The WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for Talent: How Baseball Analytics can give perspective at work

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Baseball season is now in full effect. The NFL draft just finished. We’re in the midst of the NBA playoffs. And the 2013 7th MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference seems like a distant memory. It was a baby of mine from 2011/2010 when I was one of the lead organizers. It’s fun seeing it grow, and get better every year. My favorite part: every time I go, there’s a renewed realization, inspiration, and appreciation of using analytics to make better decisions (in life).

Every once in a while, I try think about the concepts of sports analytics and try to apply to “business.” One particular concept that I think would be interesting to think about is WAR.

It is one my favorite metrics in baseball (or basketball);  this concept of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) or WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player). It summarizes a player’s total contribution to a team, with respect to a comparative “replacement” player. For instance, Player A could give 2 more “wins” vs the “average” player in that position, and hence that much more valuable to the team.

But, also looking at salaries, you could also see what you’re paying for that performance – to see if you’re paying over-market, or under-market. As an example, see this chart out of fangraphs.com, it shows how the cost of WAR per position by year:

war-by-position

As an example, the cost for a SS WAR is about $2.7M in 2011. So if you have a contract worth $20 for 4 years, for a shortstop with a per-season WAR of 3, then you’re potentially overpaying according to the market WAR value:

$20M / 4 years –> $5M/year. $5M / 3 (WAR) = $1.67M per WAR << $2.7M per WAR

Now, applying this lens to the “business world,” especially in tech with this war for talent going on, it is important to be able to effectively gauge your employees to see if they are giving the value that you’re providing in investment. How’s their VAR (Value Above Replacement)? (It’s odd to say “wins” since it’s harder to define it in “business” vs sports.)

If you’re paying “top” for “top talent,” are you getting the right value vs others in that position? Rather, would be more useful to invest in the team, to get faster/better tools to raise the output of everyone? Or, is it more valuable hiring two people more junior? Also, what is considered “replacement?” (Though, I would generally consider this someone in a similar position at another company.)

In baseball, we have plate appearances, steals, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, UZR, ERA+, BABIP, FIP…and the list goes on (thank you Sabermetricians). But at a company, each product, team, and business unit is different. Speed to launch, sales, customer satisfaction, stock price, financial metrics, and even the soft skills matter – communication, synergy, culture fit, how fun to work with…it’s definitely a hard problem. But, if businesses could tackle some of these questions (one approach is here), then comparing “raw” salaries vs “experience” may not matter as much anymore, instead companies (and individuals) could better understand their relative value vs others at the same company, and/or industry, and use it better their own situations.

 

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This is How I Work

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I was inspired the other day while reading Lifehacker, and thought it’d be fun to write my own “This is how I work” post.

Current mobile device: Samsung Galaxy S3. Been an Android guy from my original Motorola Droid

Current computer:

  • At home: Macbook Pro 13″
  • At work: Macbook Pro 15″ + some 7-year old Wintel tower

I work: Loud and fun

What apps/software/tools can’t you live without?

What’s your workspace like?

Super clean and organized…minimalist. No clutter, no papers. At max, a post-it note or two. One desktop (Windows) and one external monitor for my Macbook Pro. They are also connected via Synergy.

What do you listen to while you work?

Usually one of my co-workers or someone telling me to be quiet :) …otherwise, 90% of the time nothing. When I’m having trouble focusing, I’ll throw on the popular songs from Spotify. If I’m in the “get stuff done now” mode, I may turn to classical music and use headphones.

What’s your best time-saving trick/life hack?

  • Keep my IM/messenger on busy at ALL times
  • Memorize keyboard shortcuts. Any time you use a command more than one, MEMORIZE it.

What’s your favorite to-do list manager?

  • Post-it notes and a pen

Besides your phone and computer, what gadget can’t you live without?

Not really a gadget, but my 180 earmuffs are life savers…I probably wear them more than half the year.

What’s your sleep routine like?

From birth…I’ve always had sleeping problems (my poor mother). The only times I get good rest is if I run a half marathon or play basketball for 2+ hours…otherwise, I fluctuate between 5-7 hours, going to bed around midnight to 2am.

What everyday thing are you better at than anyone else?

…I’m loud and talk A LOT. I like to keep things light (when possible) – laughing and smiling are good things.

What’s the best advice you’ve ever received?

  • Doing common things give you common results…to have extraordinary results, you have to try extraordinary things.
  • Better to be lucky than being good. Luck defined as: when preparation meets opportunity.

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2012 Year in Review: Aftermath of a NY Storm

 

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Picture of 5th ave during superstorm Sandy

 

2012 may have been one of the most difficult years in my life post-college. But, somehow coming out alive at the end, you equally realize how much you’ve grown.

It was my first full year post-MBA, first full year living in NY, first full-year at Audible/Amazon. As from my very few blog posts, most can probably realize, the most I could muster up sharing are my favorite books that I’ve read (and listened) throughout the year. At the same time, despite how busy I was, this may be the most books I’ve finished in a single calendar year…maybe ever (thank you Audible).

A little late, but it’s always good to sit down and reflect. In review of 2012, here are a few notable moments I wanted to share

1.Sandy superstorm

- Wow…what a storm. I was very fortunate (only lost hot water for a week). It was amazing to see how quickly the city and New Yorkers got back on track after the storm. Resilience, a perfect way to describe New Yorkers. I remember stories from 9/11 and from the MTA strike, it was amazing to see it first-hand.

- Kinda crazy. I’ve only lived in NYC for < 20 months, already I’ve been through an earthquake, 2 hurricanes, local tragedies, occupy Wall Street…and the list goes on. I wonder what 2013 will bring?

2. Launching of Whispersync for Voice and Immersion Reading (or here) on the 2nd gen Kindle Fire

- The fruit of my 2012…a lot of work, but glad to see a set of truly innovative features that were first to market.

- Here are some reviews (here and here), and descriptions of how they work (here and here)

3. Qualifying for the 2013 NYC marathon (through the 9+1 program)

- For those that know me, I love playing basketball. It’s hard finding a group of guys my level, a court to play on, and regular time to play…so I took up running. Thank you NYRR. They have a fantastic organization, and running “official” timed runs really helps to push you hard (more than just regular training, at least for me). I’m looking forward to running the marathon in 2013.

4. Trip to Galapagos

- One of the coolest trips I’ve ever taken, period.

- Sad…but Lonesome George passed away in June of 2012…he was THE mascot of the Galapagos Islands. Definitely feel fortunate to been able to see him (ie take a picture of him), and just goes to show…if you want to see something, GO. Time is short.

5. Running of Hood to Coast

- Growing in Portland, I’ve always wanted to run the Hood to Coast race. After multiple years of trying to register, I finally got in.

- Quick details: 200 miles, 12 runners (actually we had 11), 111th out of 1086 completed teams (90ish percentile), 31 out of 203 in our ‘Mens Open’ division, an awesome of 26:17,  7:53 pace, and one epic time running and hanging out with 15 other Phi-Delts I used to live with in college.

 

Also, 3 books I enjoyed (don’t judge) in 2012, that I haven’t chance to share yet:

  • Darth Bane Trilogy
    • After the Thrawn Trilogy, this is next favorite set of Star Wars books. Very different take on the Force:  What the dark side is, how it’s formed, and how the current Star Wars universe came to be. Interesting to hear the other side of the story.

Peace is a lie, there is only passion.
Through passion, I gain strength.
Through strength, I gain power.
Through power, I gain victory.
Through victory, my chains are broken.
The Force shall free me

  • Secrets of the FBI
    • Awesome read…learned so much about the FBI. As I read it, the more I can’t stop thinking about Mission Impossible or James Bond.
  • Ghost in the Wires
    • I never knew about Kevin Mitnick…now, I can’t stop talking about him. Super interesting view about his life and what types of “hacking” he did, and how he became so notorious.
    • The more stories I read about “hacking” (examples: here and here)…the more I realize, it’s rarely ever about “hacking” technology, but about “hacking” people.

Other notable reads from 2012:

 

At the end, no matter how hard 2012 was, I know how fortunate and blessed I’ve been. Looking forward to an awesome 2013.

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(Audio) Book Review: Was I also “Born to Run”?

I recently finished a fantastic book, Born to Run: A Hidden Tribe, Superathletes, and the Greatest Race the World Has Never Seen written by Christopher McDougall, and narrated by Fred Sanders, and it really has motivated me to run (more). Previously one of my favorite running books was Once a Runner, which I read in high school, but all the research that McDougall in this book, makes you consider the benefits of running as more primal instinct than a “chore” to keep you healthy.

A few points of the book that I like to share:

Running. To me, it’s always been a chore. Never really enjoyed it, something I only did to keep in shape when I couldn’t play basketball. In fact, I only ran a marathon (the Portland) after watching 100s of 60+ year old people running the Boston when I was in college. After watching that, I could never say “running a marathon is too hard for me.” In fact, after doing so, I recommend EVERYONE to run one in their lives.

For the Portland, I hit my “wall” around mile 19, and I could tell immediately, it was going to be a hard 7 miles. My heart rate was up, my blisters kicked in, and my energy level dropped. In those 7 miles, I was in so much pain for so long, that I had no choice but to think; think about why I’m running this marathon, why this matters, why life matters. And, it is in those moments, where I think people grow…so perhaps, maybe we were all “born to run.”

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A for Awesome: the Avengers (Movie Review)

 

It’s been a long time since I’ve been this excited to watch a movie…and it was every bit as good as it was reviewed.

I was mostly impressed on how they did such a good job of weaving everything together the previous characters of the 5 previous Marvel movies. To get the full effect of the movie, I  I highly recommend watching the other related Marvel movies (in order of importance) before watching the Avengers:

  1. Thor
  2. Captain America
  3. Iron Man
  4. Hulk
  5. Iron Man 2

They’ve done such a good job so far…I’m curious where they go next from here. Iron Man 3, Hulk 2, maybe a Hawkeye movie?

Funny to think, where would all the good movies be now without all the comic books from my childhood :)

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Just Awesome…ESPN’s Fab Five Documentary

I just watched this documentary and it’s awesome. For any basketball fan, this is a MUST SEE (if you haven’t already seen it).

Growing up in Portland, OR, I’ve been watching basketball since I was 6…rather I’ve been watching the Blazers since I was 6. I never had a chance to appreciate college basketball until much later in life, and part of me feels like I missed out on the older era (Larry Bird/Magic Johnson rivalry and of course I wasn’t even born in the Dr.J era…). For me, what stands out in my childhood is Jordan’s prime, the domination of Shaq, and of course Clyde the  Glide. Seeing this documentary helps me understand a lot more about the history of modern basketball and how far it’s come.

Drazen Petrovic and Vladie (Divac), helped usher in the best overseas players. I got to see the rise of HS phenoms (Kemp, Kobe, Garnett, McGrady…yes, I know I’m missing Moses Malone, but I only got to see the very tail end of that career), and also the introduction of the “one-year” rule. And now there’s the coming (and going too soon) of Yao Ming, (ill) memories of Ha Seung Jin, the game or two of Tabuse, and of course, Linsanity.

The game continues to evolve and grow world-wide, which as a fan and recreational player I’m really happy for. Basketball, like most sports, is truly a global language. Pluck 10 guys from anywhere in the world, put them on a basketball court and give them a basketball. Without speaking a single word to one another, you’ll see the global language of basketball spoken fluently and beautifully. Can’t wait to see where the next 20 years of basketball will take us.

 

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4 Seasons: Jersey Boys, the Broadway Show

Wow, I had a lot of fun watching Jersey Boys. I was always curious with all the hype; it being sold out all the time and such. But when I saw it, I see that they did a terrific job. It was fun, funny, compelling story, and gave you an appreciation of the classic songs you hear so often.

Basically it’s the story of the music group, the stories of the original members, and a concert mixed in there.

The more I grow older, the more I appreciate timelessness of music. Some songs will always be recognized by every generation. Songs from Vallenti and the 4 Seasons will always be among those. Even if you don’t realize it’s from them, the tune will immediately be familiar/recognizable.

I wonder what songs from my childhood will end up becoming timeless classics…

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(Audio) Book Review: Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother

 

Wow, fantastic book. Contrary to the attention made about her original op-ed in the WSJ, the book is actually a story about a mother. Plain and simple, a mother who loves her daughters and her family. It particularly hits close to the heart, given my background, and the strictness in which I was raised. It was interesting to hear her perspective, her struggles, and how she coped with it all. Ultimately, I would say it’s a story about passing on generational cultures, values, and aspirations. It’s a struggle of any parent, immigrant, 2nd generation, or not.

Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother, is written and narrated by Amy Chua herself. I think this is another great aspect about the audiobook. When coming from her own voice, you can almost feel the emotion from her own experience. Definitely recommended for parents and children a like. It really has you questioning (at least it did for me) what it takes to “raise” a child or be “raised” “well.”

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Going Old School: the Boy with Horns. Video Game Review: Ico

 

 

Over the past month, I was able to gather up some time to go through the world of Ico on my PS2. Totally old school here. Released in 2001, it has received very high acclaim. So much so, they re-released the game combined with Shadow of the Colossus on the PS3 a few months back. Even the announcement of lead designer Fumito Ueda leaving Sony and Team Ico, has also received plenty of press.

The game itself is not very long, 10 hours max (took me 8), and it’s very pleasant. I would recommend it to anyone who enjoys video games. It’s not a game (at least for me) that drew me into playing it for long hours at a time. But instead a game that you play for a few hours, get fully engaged, appreciate it, then take a rest and come back later. There are so many small, subtle details that really make the game shine. From the subtle vibration tugs when Ico is holding Yorda’s hand, the detail in landscape which makes you feel that you can interact with any object, and the sound effects that make it feel so real.

And to think it was created in 2001!

It was such a simple game; a boy figuring out some puzzles, escaping a castle, and saving a girl. In its simplicity lies the power of the game and story. Such a fresh/refreshing view on a video games, even compared to all the games that have been released since then.  Next, from the same studios, I’m going to take a stab at Shadow of the Colossus. And I can’t wait for the Last Guardian, the latest Ueda project.

 

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(Audio) Book Review: Hunger Games Trilogy

Spent a weekend devouring the entire Hunger Games series: Hunger Games, Catching Fire, and Mockingjay. All written by Suzanne Collins and narrated by Carolyn McCormick. Started a little slow in the first book, but once it picked up, I couldn’t put down the series.

In general the series reminds of V for Vendetta, Brave New World, the Hatchet (only in the first book), Fahrenheit 451. Stories about government control, censorship, survival,and independence. Ultimately trying to make your own destiny. (I probably read a little too many of these books growing up…:).

Overall, highly recommended. Last book comes off a little chaotic, but in general you won’t be able to stop once you start (beware).

So, it looks like I’ll be watching the movie when it comes out.

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